#我的2026第一条帖 Bull Market "Mid-Season Break"? Market Cools Down and Retraces, Waiting for the Next Wave

Since last night, the overall crypto market has shown a retracement correction trend. Bitcoin continues its intraday downtrend, hitting a low of around $95,100 early this morning, and currently oscillates around $95,600, giving back part of recent gains; Ethereum's movement is relatively steady but also under pressure, falling back to around $3,273 early this morning, essentially erasing the previous rebound space, with short-term upward momentum clearly weakening.

This correction is mainly influenced by macro sentiment: last night, U.S. initial jobless claims data remained stable, indicating resilience in the employment market. Coupled with several Federal Reserve officials signaling a "hawkish" stance, suggesting rate hikes may be delayed, the market's expectation for short-term liquidity easing has cooled. Currently, the market still prices a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January.

Technical Analysis: The correction is not over yet, but support levels may repeatedly hold

· Bitcoin: After a series of bullish days, the daily chart closed with a red candle for the first time. The 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross and crossed below zero, RSI has fallen from overbought territory, indicating short-term adjustment pressure. The current price is above the 4-hour midline (around $94,800). The hourly chart's downward momentum has slowed slightly, possibly leading to repeated fluctuations in this area.
· Ethereum: Similarly, the daily chart closed with a red candle. The 4-hour MACD is weakening simultaneously, and the rebound strength at high levels continues to diminish, indicating a transition into a weak consolidation phase structurally.

Key Levels and Intraday Rhythm

Bitcoin

· Resistance: 96,300 (hourly midline) → 97,000 (last night's rebound high)
· Support: 94,800 (4-hour midline) → 94,000–93,000 (previous range upper boundary)
· Price Action: If the rebound faces resistance around 96,300–97,000, the main trend remains a retracement; if it falls below 94,800, further decline below 94,000 is possible.

Ethereum

· Resistance: 3,370–3,400 (recent rebound high zone)
· Support: 3,270 (4-hour midline) → 3,200–3,150 (previous support zone)
· Price Action: If the rebound does not break above 3,400, the trend remains weak; a break below 3,270 could accelerate the correction.

Summary and Strategy

The market has shifted from a single-sided rally to a "correction—consolidation" phase, with the overall rhythm leaning toward pressure and recovery. Current suggestions:

1. Avoid chasing the highs; patiently wait for high-altitude shorting opportunities after the rebound weakens.
2. Focus on key support levels; if 94,800 (BTC) and 3,270 (ETH) are broken, consider following the trend with light positions.
3. Pay attention to tonight’s Federal Reserve officials' speeches, which may trigger sentiment fluctuations. Manage positions carefully and set stop-loss orders.

Corrections during a bull market are often for healthier upward movement. The key is not to predict the bottom but to recognize the shift in market rhythm and stick to your trading discipline.

Stay observant, wait for clear signals—perhaps this is the most prudent stance right now.