Let's take a look back at the market movement in the early hours of the 15th. When Bitcoin surged to 97,932, the four-hour KDJ had already shown a clear bearish divergence—back at the spike to 96,863 (when the J line exceeded 100 into extreme overbought territory), it had already marked the top. As the price approached 98,000, the J line did not make a new high and was instead lower than the previous high. At the same time, the MACD also diverged, and the probability of a death cross forming above the zero line was very high. The facts confirm this.

From the outcome, shorting at 97,932 had a very high chance of success and would dominate the subsequent at least three days of correction. Why is that? The core reason is that early profit-taking positions are collectively ready to exit. The market shows this very plainly—after the surge, the medium- and long-term moving averages remain far below, which means what? A large amount of short-term trend-following capital has already made substantial profits and can sell off at any moment.

Therefore, it is currently not suitable to take short-term long positions. The market is so unstable that large funds could sell off at any time, even if it currently appears to be pushing higher.

Regarding the forecast for the next four-hour candlestick, here is my view: a healthy upward move must have structural features. What does that mean? It means that after the surge, the previous resistance levels must successfully turn into support levels. In other words, the upward movement needs to create enough space to digest profit-taking—manifesting as a range-bound consolidation on the candlestick chart, which is a process of changing hands.

After the spike from 94,000 to 96,700, the subsequent pullback in the candlesticks was somewhat large (around 95,300), which is not enough. It needs to go higher to have enough room for consolidation; otherwise, the probability of falling back below 94,000 will be very high. The final outcome just confirms this judgment.

Although the structure above 94,000 still holds, its stability, to be honest, still requires further observation.