#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Inflation is really retreating, and rate cuts might come faster than expected

Recently, this CPI data was quite shocking. Core CPI year-over-year is only 2.6%, not only below the expected 2.7%, but also month-over-month it was pushed down to 0.2% (some major banks estimate around 0.24%), completely not aligning with the market’s previous expectation of a 0.3% increase.

What’s the result? Investors immediately become restless. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in April has been sharply raised to 42%. Keep in mind, just a month ago, this was considered a low-probability event. Analysts are now saying that the downward inflation trend is basically a certainty.

Policy-wise, it’s also interesting. Although the January Federal Reserve meeting was basically uneventful (most likely no change), this weak price data actually gives them enough room to maneuver. Institutions like major investment banks have long maintained the view of two rate cuts in 2026—scheduled for June and September.

But here’s a question I can’t quite figure out: Is the inflation warning truly over? Or is this just short-term data fluctuation? More importantly, will the Fed really press the rate cut button early because of this? If it actually happens, will risk assets usher in a new round of rally?

$BTC $ETH, the performance of these two benchmark assets might provide an answer.