#美联储政策与货币政策 U.S. Treasury volatility has dropped from 99 at the beginning of the year to 59, marking the largest annual decline since the 2009 financial crisis—this data reflects the market’s re-pricing of recession risks. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle has effectively alleviated uncertainty about expectations, and market sentiment in the bond market has noticeably stabilized.

From an on-chain perspective, this macro environment shift typically triggers reallocation of funds. When volatility in traditional financial markets decreases and risk aversion eases, institutions and whales often increase their exposure to risk assets—including the crypto market. Several large wallet addresses I track have recently shown stable buy signals for ETH and BTC, especially in the days when U.S. Treasury volatility hit new lows, with a clear increase in large-scale entry.

The key is to distinguish whether this is a sustained inflow of funds or a short-term rebound. It is recommended to focus on: first, whether the on-chain inflow of stablecoins remains high; second, the trend in trading volume of large DEX transactions; third, whether mainstream exchange cold wallet addresses continue to accumulate. If all three indicators remain strong, this low-volatility environment could provide a favorable window for crypto asset operations.