#美联储货币政策 The independence of the Federal Reserve has been challenged, and this is something to watch carefully. Trump’s frequent interventions, attempts to dismiss board members, and considerations of suing Powell—seems like he’s trying to influence the next chairperson. I’ve seen too many projects use political tactics to rewrite the rules, resulting in significant market swings, and retail investors often react too slowly and get caught off guard.

The current situation feels familiar: increased uncertainty in power = policy expectations start to distort. The probability of Hasset dropping from high levels to 44%, while Wosh rises to 33%, may seem like small changes, but behind it is the market’s re-pricing of future monetary policy directions. What does this mean? It means that the positions you build now could face risks three months later due to the chairperson’s appointment.

My advice is straightforward: don’t get distracted by these political games. The key is to ask yourself three questions—Is my project truly generating cash flow? How much impact does a change in Federal Reserve policy have on it? After the chairperson is announced in January, will I still have enough risk tolerance? Too many people are blinded by macro narratives, only to realize that their holdings have long been caught in deteriorating fundamentals.

Wall Street’s tension is not without reason. Historically, during periods when central bank independence is shaken, retail investors’ chances of making money are often the lowest. Stay alert; risk management always comes before returns.