What is the market pricing behind the change in the Fed chair candidate?

Haskett, a popular candidate for the next Fed chair, recently made statements that sparked much discussion. He openly said he has been "constantly questioned at the White House for five years but is tough enough to win any debate." This statement wasn't meant for the media but was a signal to the market.

His stance is clear—he has long believed that the pace of rate cuts under Powell's leadership is too slow, aligning closely with Trump’s policy tendencies. More perceptively, he pointed out a phenomenon: the U.S. chooses to cut rates before the 2024 election but suddenly hits the brakes after Trump takes office in 2025. In his view, this operational flow reveals political factors at play rather than purely economic decisions.

But we need to stay calm here. Many see the combination of "hawkish skepticism of Powell + possible dovish rate cuts" and automatically imagine a story: liquidity injection → risk assets rise → cryptocurrency surge. While this logic seems coherent, it actually omits a key link.

**The Federal Reserve is not controlled by a single chairperson.** The FOMC’s decisions depend on a majority voting mechanism. Even if Trump indeed nominates Haskett, it doesn't necessarily mean an aggressive rate-cutting cycle will follow. There are multiple voices within the Fed, and one chair’s stance cannot change the overall checks and balances.

For crypto assets, this story has two sides.

The positive side is: the market has already begun to price in expectations of a "more moderate future policy." As long as discussions around rate cuts continue, Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported by fundamental valuation. Policy uncertainty itself benefits decentralized assets because such uncertainty breaks the traditional financial system’s deterministic pricing.

The negative side is: if rate cut expectations fall short—say, the new chair’s policy stance suddenly shifts after taking office, or internal FOMC disagreements delay decisions—the market will experience valuation drops due to expectation gaps. Even worse, if macro discussions become more politicized, volatility will increase, and the crypto market could fall into repeated shakeouts.

**The core logic is simple: this isn’t about "who becomes Fed chair," but about how U.S. monetary policy is being priced by the market as a political variable.** For the crypto ecosystem, as long as the "rate cut controversy" remains on the policy agenda, Bitcoin won't easily enter a bear market. The real risk isn’t "what happens if rates don’t cut," but rather the market prematurely treats "possibility" as "certainty," and this expectation gap will ultimately backfire on asset prices.