Ethereum's daily chart currently has several key points that must be watched.

First, the price has been firmly suppressed by the EMA200 daily moving average (around 3345), and the MACD indicator also looks less optimistic—clearly a sign that the bears are gaining momentum. From a pattern perspective, the daily chart has evolved into a triangle wedge, and after encountering resistance around 3400, the market has entered a wedge consolidation zone. But here’s the problem: the price rose above 3400 but couldn't hold above 3345, indicating a likely false breakout.

Once a false breakout is confirmed, ETH will need to test the 3215-3225 support zone. This level is the upper boundary of the wedge, which should theoretically provide support. However, to be honest, the probability of a breakdown is actually higher than that of holding.

If the price indeed drops to around 3215-3225, the subsequent movement will depend on whether it can hold this level. Holding could allow for a rebound, but if the body closes below, it’s a signal—that the false breakout has been confirmed, and the price will continue its previous downtrend. More critically, if the price continues downward and breaks below 3075-3065 (the lower boundary of the wedge), it will fully confirm a trend reversal, and the decline will continue further.

For those holding short positions, a body close below the 3215-3225 level is a signal to add to their positions, as this is the upper boundary of the wedge. If it breaks further below 3075-3065, then there’s no hesitation—continue adding to the short positions, because a break here confirms the continuation of the downtrend.