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The recent drama has indeed been quite intense. The market was originally betting on Powell resigning before May, with the probability once reaching 70%, but a judicial subpoena changed the situation, and this guy's seat became even more secure. The probability of resignation before the end of the year directly dropped to zero, and the expectation of stepping down before May was cut in half to 50%—this reversal can be called the market's "epic missed opportunity."
Previously, some tried to pressure the Federal Reserve to adjust the pace of rate cuts, but it backfired, instead reinforcing the stability expectations of the policy leadership. What seemed like a power struggle actually sent a key signal to the financial markets: the coherence of policy has been ensured.
What does this mean for the crypto market? The biggest fear in traditional financial markets is uncertainty. When the stability of the Fed leadership is strengthened, the macro policy framework becomes more predictable. Once this certainty is established, it actually gives crypto assets more room to perform—no longer being frequently suppressed by sudden policy black swans, the market can focus on its technological progress and ecosystem development.
Looking back, every major macro upheaval has ultimately reinforced the value proposition of decentralization. Market volatility has instead prompted a reevaluation of the necessity for diversified asset allocation. In the long run, the status of the crypto market as an independent asset class is gradually being established.