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The story of chip capacity is becoming clearer. The key theme for the next two years is filling the supply and demand gap, but the real big show will be in 2028 and 2029—when computing power demand will explode, and physical AI applications will truly take off.
Currently, the market is still speculating on concepts and emotions, but upstream players have already started the capacity race. Improving yield rates, optimizing packaging, ensuring power supply, and attracting top talent—all are preparations for that demand surge era.
From an investment perspective, rather than guessing when the macro story will reverse, it's better to ask yourself three questions: Who truly controls the scarce capacity? Who can convert capacity into cash flow? The one who answers these questions will be the last to laugh in this cycle. The decisive battle will be in 2029.
Full position in leading chip companies, just betting on this wave!
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It's the story of 2029 again, very well told, but I only believe it if someone really has capacity cash flow in hand right now.
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Wait, let me reorganize my thoughts... Scarce capacity + cash flow conversion, isn't that the logic I've been using for bottom-fishing? Looks like I haven't been wrong.
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2028 and 2029 are still far away, I need to figure out how to hold on until then without being liquidated... Faith, faith, and more faith.
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Has the capacity competition already started? Why do I still feel like we're still at a low point? Is the bear market causing trouble again?
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This article hit me right in the heart, explaining exactly why I've been increasing my positions. Whoever controls capacity wins. I bet I got it right and can hold steady until 2029.
Capacity bottlenecks, those who are truly making money are already laying out their plans.
Not controlling capacity means being a leek; it's that simple.
Whoever seizes electricity and talent in this wave will win.
It's another two-year waiting game; surviving until 2029 without loss is already good.
Those still hyping concepts are probably just retail investors; the real institutions have already secured their positions in production capacity. We retail investors can only follow the trend to earn some bone broth money.
Honestly, whoever can survive until 2029 and fully capitalize on their cash flow wins; everything else is just empty talk.
By the way, who really controls the production capacity? It seems like everyone is just talking big.
Wait, isn't the biggest bottleneck the electricity supply? Is no one discussing this?
No matter how good the capacity story sounds, in the end, it still depends on who can survive until 2029.
Anyway, I don't believe anyone can precisely hit this point now. The true winner is the one who makes it to the end of this cycle.
While others are still telling stories, they are already capacity-carding, the gap
Reasonably suspect that those buying now are all working for upstream
Who controls capacity wins, this logic is sound, just don't know how to pick precisely
Projects that looked promising two years ago have now turned into storytelling, a bit awkward
The supply and demand gap might not have a chance to be filled until the real demand explodes
People asking themselves these three questions are probably all cutting losses now haha
The final battle in 2029? Give me a reason to survive until 2029 first