Looking at Bitcoin's historical trends, you can see that whenever it falls below the yearly moving average, a bear market is almost certain. This time is no exception—since dropping below $100,000 on November 12, the technical signals have already been sent. To be honest, this has been over two months ago.

If we follow the four-year bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin, the current bear market may still be far from over. According to this pattern, the bottom range of this bear market should hover around $45,000. Of course, cycle theory is ultimately just historical experience, but if this pattern continues to hold, the next bull market's peak could target the $280,000 level.

Of course, the specific market movement still depends on the actual market response. But from a technical perspective, the yearly moving average line is indeed a critical watershed—breaking below it often signifies a shift in the medium-term trend.