Will the Fed Chair be reappointed? Market bets suddenly reverse

Yesterday's data changes were quite unexpected—the probability of Powell remaining as Fed Chair suddenly surged. Market sentiment data from a certain crypto asset prediction platform shows his likelihood of leaving office before the end of May dropped from nearly three-quarters to around 45%, and for the entire year, it even fell from 85% to 62%.

Why did the trend change so quickly?

In simple terms, what does Powell hold in his hands? According to current rules, he could serve until 2028. The surveys about him not only failed to weaken his position but seemed to strengthen internal cohesion within the Federal Reserve. The market's logic is very pragmatic: compared to relying on political appointments, a steady, predictable "monetary policy manager" is more reassuring.

What does this mean for the crypto world?

If Powell is indeed reappointed, the upcoming rate cuts won't be abrupt or stop-and-go but will follow a more data-driven and rational pace. In the long run, the overall direction of liquidity easing remains unchanged, but this time, the policy implementation path will be more transparent. The likelihood of the market being caught off guard by policy changes decreases, and sudden crashes are less likely to recur.

Key point: the market is essentially voting with its feet to choose "certainty." The game of central bank power is now at a critical moment.

#Strategy加仓BTC $ETH 's trading strategy may need to be adjusted around this expectation.