On January 15, 2026, ETH price retreated from the intraday high of $3403 to around $3300 (a decline of about 3%), representing a high-level consolidation rather than a "post-merge decline," mainly due to short-term negative resonance and profit-taking.

II. Major Drivers of the Pullback

1. Macro liquidity tightening: US initial jobless claims were 198,000, exceeding expectations (below the 215,000 forecast). Federal Reserve officials stated that "tightening needs to be maintained," and the 2-year US Treasury yield above 3.5% suppressed risk asset valuations (corresponding to the 15:00-20:00 capital outflow phase in the chart).

2. Crypto policy hopes dashed: The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act," originally scheduled for voting that day, was postponed. Expectations for regulatory framework implementation cooled, leading to short-term profit-taking (rapid decline after the US stock market opened at 22:30 in the chart).

3. Technical and capital divergence: The $3400 resistance level was met with previous resistance, RSI indicator approached overbought levels, combined with Bitcoin surging to $97,000 attracting capital outflows, and ETH long positions being liquidated for nearly $30 million, intensifying volatility (support zone between $3280-$3310 in the chart).

III. Follow-up Observation Points

• January 27 Federal Reserve interest rate decision (change in rate cut expectations)

• Progress of the new version of the crypto bill voting before the end of the month

• Transmission effect of Bitcoin ETF capital flows on Altcoins