#美联储货币政策 Seeing this round of Federal Reserve turmoil, the first thought that flashed through my mind was the days around 2008. Back then, Bernanke also faced pressure, but it was far less direct and naked than today.

Trump's current approach is very clear: from personnel to public opinion, from threats of removal to open disputes, this is systematically undermining the independence of an institution. Historically, whenever central bank independence is eroded, the subsequent costs are often heavy. The stagflation of the 1970s is a vivid example—political interference in monetary policy, leading to runaway inflation that took over a decade to control.

The market's reaction now is actually quite interesting. The probability on Polymarket for Hasset has fallen from a high level to 44%, while Wosh has risen to 33%. This reflects not fundamental analysis but pure political uncertainty premium. When the market starts betting on candidates with probabilities, it indicates that everyone feels: this time is different.

My biggest concern is not whether Powell will be removed, but that once personnel intervention succeeds, the subsequent expectations management will completely change. Inflation expectations are most vulnerable to confidence collapse. You’ve also seen Bitcoin and gold recently—hedging sentiment has already become apparent.

This event reminds us of an old lesson: the resilience of institutions may seem strong, but when subjected to sustained shocks, cracks often appear in unexpected places. Over the past decade, I’ve seen too many cases where the "impossible" became reality.