#加密货币ETF与资金流动 Seeing the news that Bitcoin has returned to $90,000, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—once again, driven by technicals rather than fundamentals. Does this sound familiar? Because this has been the recurring script in almost every cycle over the past decade.

In 2017, I watched the ICO wave push Bitcoin past $5,000; everyone was telling stories, discussing applications, and envisioning the future. By 2020, it was institutional entry and macro liquidity that turned the tide. Now, with ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion and tax-loss harvesting pressures layered on top of de-risking, what we see is a technical rebound driven by options expiry and short covering—simply put, money is betting on price levels rather than direction.

This detail is very important. During the 2018 bear market, technical rebounds often served as cover for major sell-offs. The current situation, with the $86,500 to $90,000 range holding for a month, and key levels shifting from resistance to support, reflects market participants' divergence—institutions are exiting, retail and short-term funds are guessing the top.

The ETF as a new variable has changed the game. The ease of capital flow reversals means that market expectations anchored in macro outlooks are more decisive than technical charts. Without new fundamental catalysts, I tend to believe this rebound is more of a correction than the start of a new cycle. History shows that true trend reversals are often accompanied by incremental capital and clear expectation gaps; pure technical repairs are unlikely to go far.