#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 January 16 Ethereum Technical Review (Current Price around 3318)

Overall, the market is oscillating and adjusting at high levels, with the bears holding the advantage. Close attention should be paid to the support line at 3300-3310 and the resistance zone at 3360-3380. The key is whether it can break through, while also keeping an eye on BTC's rhythm.

Key Price Levels

Looking upward, short-term resistance is at 3360-3380 (daily middle band overlapping previous high points), further up are 3400-3420 (integer level plus trend resistance), with strong weekly resistance at 3450. Looking downward, 3300-3310 is the first line of defense (EMA60 and 4-hour middle band support), and 3280 should not be underestimated (EMA30 short-term strong support). The mid-term watershed is at 3250 (EMA120).

Multi-Timeframe Overview

On the daily chart, EMA arrangement remains bullish (7/30/120), but RSI is only at 56, indicating a neutral position. MACD's bullish momentum has significantly weakened, and the candlestick pattern shows a risk of a death cross. The 4-hour chart has formed an ascending flag pattern, MACD has already crossed down, RSI has fallen to 49, indicating weakness, and EMA30 is under pressure, signaling a clear correction. The hourly chart is more direct—EMA7 has crossed below EMA30, MACD is in negative territory, RSI is only at 47, so short-term bears are dominant, and the rebound lacks strength. From the pattern perspective, the ascending flag is nearing the end, Bollinger Bands are tightening in preparation, and once volatility is released, an acceleration is expected.

Operational Strategy

First approach: Short at 3360-3380, with a stop-loss above 3400, targeting 3310-3280. If it truly breaks below 3280, then look further down to 3250. Second approach: If it stabilizes at 3300-3310, go long with a stop below 3270, aiming to return to 3360-3380. The third, more aggressive approach—if it stabilizes above 3400, go long with a stop at 3380, targeting 3420 or even 3450; conversely, if it falls below 3270 and rebounds, go short with a stop at 3290, targeting 3250-3230.

Risk Management Dead Rules

Position size for a single strategy should not exceed 10%, and total leverage should be controlled within 3x, strictly managing drawdowns. Stop-loss is mandatory. When signs of a breakdown appear, wait for confirmation before acting to avoid false breakouts. A buy signal is indicated when the 4-hour MACD turns bullish or RSI returns above 50, suggesting the correction may be over.