Recently, the market has been quite active, and a Federal Reserve official's statement that "rate cuts depend entirely on data" has once again triggered the familiar script: an initial rally followed by repeated fluctuations. To be honest, this is no longer a new tactic. The real logic is quite clear—the big trend in the market is often not decided at the moment the news is announced, but gradually unfolds through a tug-of-war between official statements and market expectations. Think back to those classic market movements last year; they mostly followed this pattern: a surge right after the news, then a phase of consolidation and sideways movement once enough momentum has built up.

The current background is quietly changing as well. Powell's stance is becoming more stable, and the continuity of policy is clearly strengthening. This means the Federal Reserve is becoming more focused on the data itself, with less interference from external noise. In other words, we are facing a more rational and independent decision-maker.

From this perspective, this year's core script is likely to unfold as follows: a Fed that is firm in its stance and strictly follows the data, constantly battling a series of economic data that alternates between strong and weak. It’s easy to imagine Bitcoin and the entire crypto market swinging back and forth between "strong economic data → delayed rate cut expectations" and "weak economic data → early rate cut expectations." This expectation gap will drive the market to experience intense volatility.

What do you think will happen next? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.