#美国民主党BlueVault 1.16 Morning Silver Trading Rhythm

Operate within the range during the day; avoid chasing highs or selling lows.

This wave of correction is not simple. The Trump administration changed the approach—shifting from comprehensive tariffs to bilateral negotiations, causing the previously imposed "tariff premium" on silver to quickly dissipate. Coupled with profit-taking after the new high of (93.75 USD), spot silver plunged over 7%, with the lowest reaching $86.23. Currently, it’s in the recovery phase, and sentiment has not yet stabilized.

But this is just short-term noise. The real logic remains unchanged—global physical silver is still in tight supply, leasing rates are at historical highs; industrial demand for photovoltaics and new energy vehicles is exploding, and gold’s rally is also fueling the upward momentum. The supply-demand gap cannot be alleviated in the short term. Check the ETF holdings—over 16,000 tons, representing real liquidity being locked. In the medium to long term, the bullish logic still holds.

Today’s key points are twofold: how the US dollar index moves (a soft landing supports the dollar, suppressing silver prices), and whether the Federal Reserve signals any new divergence in policy. The flow of funds in European and American markets will determine the final direction during the day.

Technical overview: The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, prices are oscillating around the middle band, MACD green bars are converging, and KDJ is turning at low levels—indicating short-term downward momentum is waning, and a direction should be chosen. The daily chart still shows a bullish arrangement, with EMA50 providing dynamic support; the main trend remains bullish, and the correction is just a high-level pause.

**Key support**: 88.0-88.5
**Key resistance**: 92.0-92.8

**Long position strategies**

Conservative: Buy on pullback to 88.5-89.0, with stop-loss at 87.8. Targets at 91.5-92.0, and further up at 92.8-93.0.

Aggressive: If it unexpectedly dips to 86.5-87.0 (but not below 86), add a small long position with stop-loss at 85.8, same targets. This is a bet on a strong rebound from the lows.

**Short-term wave trading strategy(**

Short at 92.2-92.8, with stop-loss at 93.8. First target at 90.5-91.0, then at 89.5-90.0.

**Important reminder**: Never chase shorts below $88. The medium-term bullish pattern is clear; opening short positions at lows is a paradox of odds.

Breakout strategies: If the price effectively surpasses the new high of 93.75, immediately switch to long positions, targeting above 95; if it breaks below strong support at 86, do not rush to buy, look for shorts at 84.5-85. If silver stabilizes above 90 after the European session opens, the bullish recovery can be confirmed; conversely, if it remains below 89 during European trading, be alert for a second dip.