#MSCI未来或纳入数字资产财库企业 January 16 Market Observation

When the market is fluctuating, we can all come up with good trading logic. But once the price approaches a breakout point, nerves start to fray—fearing missing out on the move and also fearing repeated stop-outs. When the dust settles and we look back, we often realize we overthought it and regret hesitating at the time. This is the unavoidable psychological hurdle in trading—everyone has to get through it.

After this wave of gains, the bears need to be more patient, while the bulls, although seeing clear long signals and with solid support at the bottom trendline (each pullback has a rebound), are still stuck below a key resistance level. Even with optimism about a small bull market, everything still depends on an "effective breakout." Friday will be the watershed—if the price doesn’t break the previous high before the US market opens, short-term trading will continue to be choppy.

**Technical Scan:**

Bitcoin has been oscillating between $95,000 and $98,000 over these two trading days, with obvious selling pressure above. On the hourly chart, DIF and DEA are diverging downward, and MACD is in the negative zone, indicating a strong correction signal. RSI has fallen from overbought to 52, showing short-term upward momentum is weakening. EMA7 and EMA30 are still close and slightly turning down, so the key is whether the $94,500 level can hold.

On the daily chart, although bullish momentum is waning and a death cross of indicators is possible, RSI remains around 60, indicating relative strength. EMA7/30/120 are still in a bullish alignment, and the overall framework remains intact. Short-term trading should focus on pullback longs.

**Reference Levels:**
- Long around $BTC 93,800-94,800, targeting $ETH 96,400-97,400
- Long around 3,230-3,270, targeting 3,350-3,390