#比特币价格走势 The US Dollar Index declined nearly 10% in 2025, marking the largest annual drop since 2017—this signal warrants attention.

Key data points:
- Polymarket predicts a 96% chance of rate cuts before June, with the Federal Reserve clearly in an easing mode
- Trump may replace the Fed Chair to push for further rate cuts; the current interest rate of 3.5%-3.75% has room to decline
- Weakening dollar and rate cut expectations form a positive feedback loop

From the perspective of on-chain capital flows, this macro environment is indeed likely to trigger risk asset reallocation by institutions and retail investors. Dollar depreciation means that assets denominated in USD have relatively higher yields, and Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign asset hedge will be re-priced.

However, it’s important to remain calm, as there is often a trading gap between expectations and reality. The market has already reacted to rate cut expectations; the real catalysts will depend on the timing and magnitude of actual policy implementation. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s actions around January and June 2026, two key time windows, and compare them with current prices to assess whether expectations are fully priced in.

Also, keep an eye on whale addresses—if institutional large holders start positioning before rate cut expectations are realized, this could be more informative than news headlines.