#数字资产市场动态 Does the "Four-Year Cycle" of Bitcoin really still work?



To put it bluntly: it might not work at all anymore, but people just can't let go of this idea.

Speaking of which, the four-year cycle has never been a scientific law—it’s more like a story that generations of investors have told themselves.

Fell? Don’t worry, just wait for the halving.

Consolidating? No problem, the cycle is still long.

The real question worth asking isn’t whether this theory is reliable,

but—if there were no such "cycle theory," would you still dare to hold on?

Prices might go up, but what actually drives it might not be the halving event itself, but everyone’s collective belief that the next wave of market movement will come.

This thing, rather than being a physical law, is more like a "collective religion" in the crypto world.

Think about it: do you believe in the cycle itself, or do you believe that others have made money within this cycle?
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OnChainDetectivevip
· 01-19 00:30
Wait a moment, I need to check the on-chain data... Recently, the transfer frequency of whale wallets starting with 0x has indeed been abnormally high, so the real driver behind this wave isn't the halving cycle, but rather institutions secretly creating market expectations. We retail investors have become the carefully designed bagholders.
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FantasyGuardianvip
· 01-17 11:34
Breaking the big defense, the four-year cycle is basically collective self-hypnosis. To be honest, every time there's a dip, people start looking for reasons—halving, cycles—but the ones who truly make money have already run away. Trust your stop-loss levels more than the cycle.
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Liquidated_Larryvip
· 01-16 01:29
Basically, it's psychological comfort; everyone knows it, but no one is willing to burst this bubble.
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PanicSellervip
· 01-16 01:26
Ha, that hits pretty close to home. I'm the kind of person who would have already left if I didn't believe in cycles, but I still keep holding on. Truly ironic.
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PositionPhobiavip
· 01-16 01:14
Basically, it's just self-hypnosis. The halving has already been hyped up to death. Now it's just a matter of who backs down and runs away first.
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MetaverseVagabondvip
· 01-16 01:01
Honestly, without cycle theory, I would have cut my losses and run long ago. This thing is just a psychological placebo. I've persisted for so long not because of a story to tell or a reason to justify, but because those who truly make money are never the ones who believe in cycles. The collective religion analogy is spot on. In the crypto world, it's really about speculating on expectations. The halving is just a smokescreen. Wait, then according to this logic, what exactly are we betting on when we buy coins? It's either cycles or human nature. Both are unclear now. Anyway, I will still keep holding.
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