Last night, during that one-hour period starting at 21:30, the reality storyline completely reversed.

First, the employment data came in—US initial unemployment claims dropped to 198,000, a figure no economist predicted to be so low. It’s important to note that such "better-than-expected" data usually cause big waves in the market, let alone when it’s linked to employment.

But that wasn’t the harshest part. The real "shock" came from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee’s interview on CNBC—he said these low numbers are nothing special, and the labor market is stable. His words implied only one thing: the Fed’s current main concern is inflation, not employment. Rate cuts? Not urgent. After hearing this, the market immediately adjusted its expectations for rate cuts, which had been betting on the first cut in June (after Powell’s departure). The enthusiasm has clearly waned.

Then, Kansas City Fed President Scheide also came out to say that inflation is "too hot" now, and there’s no sign of a rate cut being necessary.

According to logic, all of this should have played out as the old script: "Dollar surges, other assets fall." Indeed, after these data and comments, gold prices plummeted over $30, and the dollar index hit a new high since December last year.

But then, the turning point arrived. This trend only lasted for an hour. After 22:00, everything reversed. Gold started to rebound, and the dollar index retraced some of its gains. The stock market also opened significantly lower...

This 30-minute "reality" was thus overturned.