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In our careers, we have seen too many investment decision mistakes. The most typical one is judging future potential based on current market performance.
Take the ride-hailing industry as an example. Many people look at Uber and Lyft's current market situation and jump to conclusions. But the real opportunities are often hidden in areas that seem "not yet mature" or "problematic" today.
This cognitive bias runs throughout the entire investment world. We are easily confused by the data in front of us and overlook the fact that the market itself is constantly evolving. The key is to understand what the market looks like now and what it could become in the future—these two are often very different.
I've been fooled by current candlestick charts too many times, really.
Uber's data looked bleak, but it completely changed the entire transportation industry.
To be honest, most people won't even wait for the market to change.
Early entrants and current entrants are entirely different stories.
That's why Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful—that's what he's talking about.
When Bitcoin drops, it's the best time to look at potential projects, but unfortunately, no one can do that.
There are really many people fooled by short-term data, it's time to wake up
The market is like this now ≠ the market will always be like this, is it really hard to understand that
Problems in projects often hide opportunities, it all depends on who can see far enough
Many people invest just for quick money, never thinking about what it will be like in five years
So, things that are denied by the current situation are actually the most worth paying attention to
Really, cognitive gaps lead to differences in returns
The market is changing, and your mind can't just stay stuck on current data
Now I understand that betting on tomorrow based on today's data, 99% of the time you'll lose money
Web3 is the same, many projects now look very disappointing, who knows what will happen
That's why I never follow the trend to chase hot topics; you need to see clearly where the market is headed
Early entrants often seem the most foolish, but in the end, they are the ones laughing the loudest
The gap between market perception and reality is always this big, and that's the real opportunity
People always buy high and sell low, criticizing poor projects as having no prospects, and as a result, missing out on dark horses.
There were also people calling Uber dead back then. And now?
The difference is whether you can see through the fog. Most people simply can't do it.
So I usually go against the crowd. When everyone is pessimistic, that's the real opportunity.
Isn't this just armchair strategizing? How many people truly dare to go all-in on projects that "seem problematic"?
In theory, it should be feasible, but in practice, it's a different story. I've experienced quite a few in DeFi over the past few years.
Those still chasing the hot trends are basically just serving as bagholders for the next wave.
Just because the market is bad now doesn't mean it will be bad in the future. That's a valid point
Uber was also criticized back then. And now?
Current data can be the most deceptive. We've all fallen into that trap
Problematic girls are often the next dark horse. That's the difference