#美国就业数据不及预期 $DASH $BCH $CHZ

The Federal Reserve Faces Political Pressure as Trump's Shift in Attitude Sparks Market Reflection

In the past week, discussions about the Federal Reserve have surged. Trump publicly stated that he has no plans to dismiss Powell, seemingly easing his tone, but underlying currents are brewing—he also named former board member Wosh and former White House official Hasset as potential successors, emphasizing that "the final decision is still early." This statement appears more like a strategic move in a game of chess rather than a concession.

Meanwhile, the latest Beige Book data from the Fed is also worth noting. Officially, it describes "moderate growth in 8 districts," but in plain language, the outlook isn't as optimistic—consumer spending mainly relies on holiday shopping, employment data has stabilized but hasn't shown clear signs of recovery, and prices continue to rise slowly. More critically, tariffs are exerting cost pressures across the U.S. PPI remains resilient, and there are no signs that inflationary pressures have truly eased.

Why does this news make the market more nervous? The key lies in three dimensions:

First, Trump's "concession" is essentially a threat. Not replacing people this year doesn't mean they won't be replaced next year. If his confidants take control of the Fed, monetary policy could become a political tool, and an aggressive rate-cut cycle might be triggered. Second, economic data shows contradictions—growth relies on holiday stimulus, inflation can't be suppressed, and the Fed faces a policy dilemma with limited room for adjustment. Third, a power struggle over the Fed's independence is underway, with investigations by the Department of Justice ongoing, and global central banks are closely watching this covert battle.

In the short term, any "positive signals" could turn into traps for false hope. When political games clash with conflicting data, the market is bound to oscillate back and forth. The two key indicators that will truly determine the future direction are the CPI inflation data and the non-farm payroll report.

Looking at it from another angle—if Powell can't hold out until the end of his term, and the "Two Kevins" really take over, could they initiate a疯狂降息模式 (crazy rate-cutting mode)? This is a question worth monitoring continuously.