#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 $DASH $BCH $CHZ

The Federal Reserve is causing more trouble again, Trump's attitude has reversed, and Powell has temporarily avoided a crisis — but the battle for central bank independence has just begun to heat up.

🔥The first bomb drops

Trump publicly says he has "no immediate plans" to replace Powell, which sounds like a retreat. But as soon as he finishes speaking, he names two potential replacements — former board member Wacht and former White House official Hasset — and emphasizes that "a final decision is still a long way off." This is not a compromise; it’s laying the groundwork for future control over the Fed. It may soothe the markets in the short term, but long-term it hides the shadow of a power struggle.

📊What the Beige Book reveals

Eight regions report "moderate growth"? Don’t be fooled by this wording. Consumer spending is mainly supported by holiday shopping, employment data barely holds up, but prices have been quietly climbing. The most concerning part is that tariff costs have spread across the U.S., and PPI data remains strong, indicating that inflationary pressures have not eased. Growth and inflation are running parallel, with the Fed caught in the middle.

⚠️Why the markets can’t sit still

Trump’s "concessions" are essentially threats. Not replacing people this year doesn’t mean the same will happen next year. If his allies take over the Fed, rate cuts could become a political tool, which would be a variable for financial markets and crypto asset pricing.

Economic data appears stable on the surface but is internally contradictory. Growth is driven by holiday spending, inflation remains stubborn, and the Fed faces a dilemma of preventing recession while controlling inflation. Policy maneuvering space is shrinking.

The Department of Justice’s investigation isn’t over yet, and global central banks are watching this power struggle. The issue of Fed independence is far from settled.

💭Key observations

Any recent seemingly positive news could trigger a chase — in this environment, data points may conflict, and political games are stirring the winds behind the scenes. The two key indicators that will truly determine the direction are: CPI inflation data and the non-farm payroll report.

What’s your take? Can Powell hold through his term? If power truly shifts, will it trigger an unlimited rate cut mode?

Share your thoughts in the discussion area.