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The core CPI data just released shattered market expectations—numbers came in below forecasts, which is undoubtedly good news for an economy long troubled by inflation.
How fast was the market reaction? U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, the dollar also depreciated, and risk assets benefited accordingly. What are investors seeing? The Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate policy might be changing. Calls for rate cuts within the year have suddenly gained momentum.
From a different perspective: everyday life for ordinary people could improve—living costs no longer need to keep rising. The pressure on the Federal Reserve has eased, no longer needing to consider continuous rate hikes, but instead pondering how to relax policy appropriately to support the economy.
Of course, relying on just one month’s data isn’t overly optimistic. Inflation in the services sector remains stubborn, and it will depend on whether inflation can stabilize as it declines, and how the employment market will evolve. But regardless, this report can be considered a reassurance for the market—finally, there’s a chance to catch a breath.