Gold has indeed been fluctuating within a narrow range recently. Yesterday, after rising to 4642 during the day, it started to decline. Although it slowly climbed with support in the early session, after reaching a local high during the European session in the afternoon, the bulls clearly showed signs of fatigue. By the end of the session, there was a slight rebound, but it couldn't break through the 4640 level, indicating strong resistance.

From a fundamental perspective, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 were lower than expected, indicating that the labor market remains strong. This directly dispelled market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. As a result, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index both rose, which in turn pressured gold prices. Additionally, there are no signs of escalation in the global geopolitical situation, and risk aversion sentiment has cooled down, leading to a decline in gold's safe-haven premium. Institutions are also withdrawing; the world's largest gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.1 tons, further intensifying the correction due to capital outflows.

Looking at the 1-hour K-line, after a decline from the high of 4642 to 4581, the rebound has repeatedly tested around 4615, indicating a clear resistance signal. During the decline, a preliminary downward channel has formed, with the 4619 level repeatedly facing resistance, making the overall bearish pattern very clear. The key resistance is in the 4619-4622 range, while support is at 4595. If broken, it could continue testing the previous low at 4581. Technical indicators also favor the bears—MACD remains below the zero line, and KDJ has turned downward. The bulls' counterattack is evidently lacking strength, and the bears currently hold the advantage.

Strategically, when the price rebounds to around 4635-4655, consider shorting at high levels. The initial target is 4600, with a further target of 4580.