💭 Market thoughts

$BTC still looks solid.

PA has become pretty straightforward to read:
when we see strong net ETF inflows and long-term holders reduce meaningful selling, we get upside.
If either of those breaks, we get chop or downside.

Over the past week, large OG sellers have clearly dialed back sell pressure, and since yesterday we’re seeing renewed, sizable ETF inflows. At the same time, price has reclaimed the lower edge of the cloud, with technicals looking as constructive as they have since October:

I’m getting a lot of questions about which alts I’m long besides $XMR and honestly, so far I’ve only taken small positions to get back into the groove. For me, it’s crucial to focus on asymmetric alt setups; trades with at least 2× upside potential. If that’s not on the table, I’d rather stick with BTC, or BTC with leverage, because otherwise the RR simply isn’t there.

For my taste, most alt setups still looking a little bit premature as they did not manage to make the same strength-signaling move as $BTC did. A look at $BTC.D makes it even more clear & I guess we need to see a meaningful rejection on that front for Alts to get their outsized RR back:

e.g. $SOL; $ICP & $IP all look pretty close to ready, but their technical structures still signal lower conviction to me compared to going long $BTC at current levels. A little bit more patience is needed imho to get a confirmation before entering a long: