The upcoming U.S. midterm elections are expected to play a significant role in shaping stock market policy trends. According to BlockBeats on January 14, Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, introduced the concept of “Big MAC trading,” short for “Big Midterms Are Coming.” This term reflects his view that the dominant theme for the U.S. equity market in 2026 will be political direction tied to the approaching midterm elections and their potential market impact.

U.S. President Donald Trump has been actively issuing policy statements at the start of the year, signaling a strong focus on improving the Republican Party’s chances in the November elections. His policy initiatives primarily target widely debated “feasibility challenges” within the U.S. economy, and these moves could have substantial implications for financial markets.
Recent market reactions highlight this sensitivity. Last week, stock market performance was pressured after Trump called on credit card issuers to cap interest rates at 10%—less than half of the current average—leading to a sharp decline in banking stocks. Additionally, his directive for defense companies to suspend dividend payments and reinvest profits into production weighed heavily on defense sector equities. More recently, government criticism regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve triggered widespread panic across Wall Street on Monday.
Clissold noted in his report that sector-specific policy adjustments pose a major risk ahead of the midterm elections. At present, markets remain uncertain about how to effectively hedge against these politically driven risks, reinforcing volatility and caution among investors.