Bitcoin volatility drops to lows, long-term holders show profit-taking signals

HashBandit · 2026-01-13T01:00:10+00:00

Recent on-chain data analysis shows that Bitcoin's implied volatility has decreased, and market sentiment is leaning towards calmness. However, the low hedging demand and the profit-taking volume of holders have fallen to critical levels, which may indicate increased market risk and high uncertainty.

HashBandit

2026-01-13 01:00:10

Abstract generation in progress

【Blockchain Rhythm】Recent on-chain data analysis shows an interesting phenomenon: Bitcoin’s implied volatility has significantly declined and entered a relatively moderate expectation range. This indicates that the market is not well prepared for large fluctuations in the upcoming period, and overall sentiment is leaning towards calmness.

However, behind this seemingly peaceful situation lies hidden risks. When hedging demand drops to extremely low levels, once the market truly becomes volatile, prices tend to adjust rapidly. Investors may have little time to react, and position adjustments could be very quick and intense.

What’s more noteworthy is that the profit-taking volume of long-term Bitcoin holders has cooled to a critical level. Historically, this situation usually appears in two phases: one is the stagnation period in the mid-stage of a bull market, and the other is the bottoming phase at the early stage of a bear market. Both scenarios are accompanied by high market uncertainty. Is this a sign that the market is about to break through, or just the last calm before the peak? It’s still hard to say at the moment.

BTC2,62%

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LayerZeroEnjoyer

· 01-16 00:56

With such low volatility, it feels like the calm before the storm; it will explode sooner or later.

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SelfCustodyBro

· 01-16 00:28

It's eerily calm, like a storm is about to break.

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CryptoComedian

· 01-15 14:11

Laughing and then crying, volatility has really hit rock bottom—playing with fire. The next second could see a lightning-fast crash. Are the newbies ready to get cut?

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WagmiAnon

· 01-13 01:28

With such low volatility, it feels like a sign of an impending crash...

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GasGasGasBro

· 01-13 01:26

With such low volatility, it feels like the calm before the storm. Just waiting to be smashed.

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WhaleStalker

· 01-13 01:26

Beneath a calm exterior lies a knife; I know this routine too well, it's always like this. A sudden surge or plunge overnight, retail investors can never react in time. Long-term holders are staying put? Then it's time to be cautious. The lower the volatility, the more explosive the move; history repeats itself this way. This wave will either break through new highs or crash straight through, with no third possibility.

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GhostChainLoyalist

· 01-13 01:24

With such low volatility, it feels like accumulating energy. A sudden spike could really shake things up.

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RamenStacker

· 01-13 01:21

Low volatility is not a good sign; it's the calm before the storm...

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AirdropCollector

· 01-13 01:17

Does low volatility mean a crash is coming? I've seen this trick too many times; every time they say calmness is dangerous, and it ends up sideways for half a year. Long-term holders calmly sell off, indicating that big players haven't decided which way to go, and this is when it's easiest to get knocked out.

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ChainWanderingPoet

· 01-13 01:10

This wave of silence is too strange, feeling like the calm before a big storm. Where is the promised profit-taking? Are they all waiting for something? A hidden dagger in the calm, and once it moves, it's a bloodbath. I've seen this before.

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