No matter whether Powell faces criminal investigation or not, the market is first trading on "credibility risk"

In financial markets, the influence of news often precedes its authenticity. The rumors surrounding “Powell facing a criminal investigation” have attracted significant attention not because of the investigation itself, but because it directly points to a core issue — whether the independence of the Federal Reserve is being eroded.

For the market, the value of the Federal Reserve is not just its interest rate tools, but its institutional credibility. Once the top officials of the central bank are involved in judicial or political disputes, even if unconfirmed, it can amplify the “policy uncertainty premium” in the short term. This is directly reflected in the volatility of the US dollar, government bonds, gold, and risk assets.

Historical experience shows that markets are not good at waiting for clarification and tend to price in the worst-case scenario in advance. Therefore, even if the event is ultimately proven false, the intense fluctuations of related assets during the emotional shock phase are still real. This is also why rational investors pay more attention to “how the market believes” rather than “what the facts ultimately are.”#鲍威尔遭刑事调查