Powell's criminal investigation truly impacts not interest rates, but the policy anchor

Many people's first reaction is: will this affect the pace of rate cuts? But the deeper impact lies in whether the Fed's "policy anchor" begins to loosen. Over the past few decades, the market has assumed that the Federal Reserve has a high degree of independence from political and judicial influences, and this expectation itself acts as a stabilizer.

Once this expectation is shattered, the market will have to reprice the "policy continuity risk." Every future rate decision and statement will carry additional interpretation costs.

This won't immediately change the level of interest rates, but it will alter how funds discount long-term assets. In other words, the issue isn't whether rates go up or down, but whether the rules remain credible.
#鲍威尔遭刑事调查