The real risk does not lie in the event itself, but in the "precedent effect."

From a long-term perspective, the market's greatest concern is not Powell personally, but whether a precedent has been set. If central bank officials are more frequently involved in judicial or political battles in the future, monetary policy will inevitably be labeled with more uncertainty.

This will increase the risk premium for global assets, especially long-term bonds and overvalued assets. In other words, even if the event eventually subsides, the "psychological shadow" it leaves behind may persist.

Therefore, the key to rationally viewing such news is not to take sides or interpret emotionally, but to observe:


Whether the market begins to systematically adjust its expectations of "institutional stability." Once this adjustment occurs, its impact will far exceed the event itself. #鲍威尔遭刑事调查