My thoughts on BTC/crypto going into 2026

BTC current range: it's currently wedged in-between two key levels: 2026 yearly open and 2025 yearly open. These levels will be key all year

25YO lines up w/ bottom of the cloud, reclaim that + opens up an E2E play to top of the cloud. First target above 25YO is that ~$97k high outlined, then E2E

If price loses yearly open, then the lows are up for grabs. I really wish there'd been some sweeps tbh. Almost every major bottom/top for BTC has had a sweep of the low / SFP. So statistically speaking, not having any is kinda tilting

Overall IMO BTC bulls have the edge short term while above yearly open. Yet there are some things I don't like. I.e. there are 7 untapped lows. Also, a straight shoot up off the yearly open w/ no bottom wick on monthly/quarterly/yearly. Not great. I know 2023 was the same, but 2023 at least had a sweep of the low

I wish this low looked a bit different tbh but it is what it is. I'm playing it level to level atm, open to all possibilities (low in and we go straight up... or low not in and we gotta sweep: not taking either off the table). I'm positioned for both. Lots of crypto exposure w/ some idle cash to buy a big dip if it comes. Gun to head, maybe we go a bit higher, take out that ~$97k high then something happens in the macro to trigger a move down, then its time for the real recovery. idk, this is just guesswork

Regarding altcoins: I think we have some huge opportunities ahead in 2026. When exactly I'm not sure, but I'm expecting a big move down in BTC dominance *at some point*. When, idk. Does it move higher first? idk.

I'm pleased that memecoins bounced incredibly hard to start the year. The altcoin death (memes included) of H2 2025 was harrowing so this was/is a great reminder that memecoins are still the defacto go-to bid when risk appetite returns. When we get some real multi-month altcoin risk on action at some point in 2026, I believe memes will lead as they always do. Whether that comes imminently or after one more big dip, I do not know

For now, I am just playing it level to level, staying long spot, keeping core holdings the same and plan to add if any sizeable dips present themselves

2026 is a marathon, not a sprint. I believe it will be a good year for risk assets and crypto but with periods of high volatility to scare the hoes. So stay away from leverage, stick to spot, don't gamble on 'new runners of the day' and let's get after it.