BTC capital structure determines who is buying; it is more important than simply observing the price.

When judging BTC market trends, looking at the price alone is far from enough; the capital structure is the key factor. Recently, it is evident that short-term capital is entering and exiting frequently, while there are no obvious signs of medium- to long-term capital reducing positions. This type of capital structure usually indicates that the market is still in a "healthy game" stage.

If the trend is at its end, there will typically be old capital distributing and new capital taking over, with distorted and exaggerated trading volume. But currently, BTC seems more like new and old funds repeatedly battling within a certain range, rather than a one-way dump. Additionally, on-chain data and derivatives market signals have not synchronized to release systemic risk signals, which also provides some bottom support for the market. As long as capital does not collectively withdraw, BTC is unlikely to experience a deep unilateral decline.

The market always tells a story, but capital flow does not lie. Understanding who is entering the market is often more valuable than guessing the next candlestick direction. #每日行情分析