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On Wednesday, US economic data was released, with December ADP employment increase at only 41,000 jobs. Although below expectations, it was enough to alter market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's policy. Once this data came out, market enthusiasm for a rate cut in January noticeably cooled — according to CME data, the probability of a rate cut dropped from 17.7% the previous week to 11.1%. It seems that subtle changes in economic data are profoundly influencing traders' expectations of the central bank's next move.
Interestingly, while macroeconomic data remains uneventful, the Bitcoin market is bubbling beneath the surface. The latest indicators show Bitcoin's Net Taker trading volume has fallen to approximately -$19 million (25-hour moving average), the strongest sell pressure signal since December 23. In other words, market control has shifted from buyers to sellers, and selling pressure is accumulating.
But the story isn't over yet. On-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals an interesting contrast: although retail investors and traders may be releasing holdings in the short term, institutional attitudes are quite different. These major players currently hold 673,000 BTC, a significant proportion, with no signs of reducing their holdings. Their long-term conviction does not appear to be shaken by short-term volatility.
This raises a key question: while the current rebound is indeed driven by spot trading, have speculative positions already become overextended in this rally? Analysts believe that, with the diversification of liquidity channels, traditional capital inflow logic has become more elusive. However, from the perspective of institutions' steadfastness, at least in the coming months, Bitcoin may not experience the extreme 50%+ declines seen in historical bear markets. Instead, it might enter a relatively stable sideways phase.
It is worth noting that recent rumors about Venezuela holding $60 billion worth of Bitcoin have circulated in the market, but this figure lacks solid evidence, and investors should remain cautious.
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Probability of rate cut 11.1%? They really think the Federal Reserve's patience is endless, given the poor economic data.
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67.3 million Bitcoins are in the hands of big players. It feels like this rebound can't turn things around at all.
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The claim that Venezuela has 60 billion Bitcoins—please, everyone, stop believing it. There's no evidence.
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Short-term selling pressure is extremely strong, but institutions remain unmoved... this gap is a bit hopeless.
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Sideways consolidation? Forget it, just waiting for the big players to dump.
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The Fed's move directly cut the probability of rate cuts in half. What are the market's fantasies still about?
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Seeing institutions move their chips, my mindset is starting to collapse... they’re just waiting for us to sell off.
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Net Taker -19 million, this selling pressure signal is pretty harsh. Where are the bagholders?
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So right now, it's big players accumulating while retail investors are selling off—that old routine.
Retail investors are selling off again, a typical leek rhythm.
Venezuela's 60 billion? Haha, I don't believe you.
The probability of interest rate cuts has dropped so much, the Federal Reserve is really planning to stir things up.
Sideways trading? I think we might need another round of shakeout before things stabilize.
Institutions hold onto 670,000 Bitcoins without moving, while our side's net selling pressure is accumulating... Really interesting.
Listen to this data, can 41,000 people change the probability of rate cuts by ten percentage points? How fragile is the US economy?
Venezuela has 60 billion Bitcoins? That claim is ridiculous, no one can verify it, it's just another wave of虚虚乌有炒作.
Looking at the institutions' attitude, there may be many short-term bottom-fishing opportunities, but don't expect any big market moves.
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No chance of rate cuts anymore, should BTC follow the decline? Feels a bit uncertain
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67.3 million Bitcoins are in the hands of big players, we still have to play along
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The claim of Venezuela having 60 billion is just... pure nonsense
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Selling pressure is accumulating, but not to the point of a crash? I’ve been thinking about this logic for a while
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Spot holdings are supporting the market, is excessive speculation in positions? That’s the real problem
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The sideways phase is coming, time to wait and see again
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Net Taker has dropped to -1900w, isn’t that really scary
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Institutions are confident, let’s not over-interpret short-term fluctuations
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When the Federal Reserve shifts policy, everything in the market changes... too sensitive