The Federal Reserve's rate cut window is narrowing. The probability of a rate cut in January has dropped from 17.7% to 11.1%, a quite significant shift. The December employment data released yesterday provided some clues—adding 41,000 jobs, which shows a recovery compared to November's -29,000, but this figure still falls short of market expectations.

The core contradiction is clear: employment has not fully collapsed, yet inflation has not reached the 2% target. Under this condition, the rationale for the Fed to cut rates in January is not strong. Market consensus has already formed, and January is more like an "observation period." The real betting point shifts to March, with the current probability of a rate cut in March around 45%.

The key variable is the non-farm payroll data released tomorrow night. If the data remains resilient, the expectation of a rate cut in March will be re-priced, and the entire market will face a real stress test. The impact on crypto assets should not be underestimated—each Fed policy tweak triggers a chain reaction in capital flows and market sentiment. Close monitoring of dollar policy movements is essential to better respond to market changes.