Speculation on the October decline and its relation to Morgan Stanley MSCI actions

Timestamp: October 10, 2025

Key Event: MSCI Proposal Announcement

MSCI, originally part of Morgan Stanley, announced a proposal: to remove “digital asset financial companies” (such as MicroStrategy) that hold large amounts of Bitcoin from its global indices.
Consequences: Index funds face forced liquidation risks. Within minutes of the announcement, Bitcoin plummeted nearly $18,000, and the total crypto market cap evaporated over $900 billion.

Timestamp: October 10, 2025 - December 31, 2025

Public consultation period lasts exactly three months, market demand is “frozen.”
Passive investors avoid risk, institutions wait and see, market sentiment collapses.
Market performance: prices remain weak, Bitcoin drops about 31% during this period, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2018.

January 1 - January 5, 2026
:
Without any positive news, the ongoing sell-off suddenly halts, and Bitcoin begins a continuous rally.

Suspected insiders with prior knowledge act early.
Data support: In the first five days of 2026, Bitcoin rises 8% (from $87,500 to $94,800, an increase of $7,300).

January 5, 2026
Key Event: Morgan Stanley makes a high-profile entry

Morgan Stanley officially submits applications for its own spot Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (Solana) ETFs.

January 6, 2026 (Following Morgan Stanley’s move)

A few hours after Morgan Stanley’s ETF application, MSCI announces it will ultimately not remove cryptocurrency heavyweights from its indices.
Market pressure is alleviated, liquidity returns.

Suspected manipulation cycle:

[Creating pressure (MSCI proposal removal)] ➔ [Accumulating at low prices (institutions waiting during suppression)] ➔ [Launching products (Morgan Stanley submits ETF)] ➔ [Relieving pressure (MSCI cancels threat)] ➔ [Realizing profits (market rebounds)]