#比特币价格预测 Seeing Peter Brandt's prediction, I have organized the logic. He based his analysis on the five logarithmic scale parabolic uptrend patterns of Bitcoin over the past 15 years, combined with the characteristic of at least 80% retracement in each cycle, and extrapolated that September 2029 will be the peak of the next bull market. This framework is supported by data itself, but the key issue is—whether historical cycles can be fully applied to the future.

From an on-chain perspective, the structural features of Bitcoin have already changed: increased institutional holdings, the inflow of spot ETFs altering capital dynamics, and the evolution of the mining difficulty adjustment mechanism. These variables may break the traditional logarithmic curve predictions.

In the short term, I am more focused on the current whale movements and capital flows. If large wallets continue to accumulate at the bottom and leverage levels on derivatives remain low, then the rebound space will be more reliable. Conversely, if there are clear signals of accumulation at high levels and leverage stacking, then caution is needed for a retracement.

There are still 5 years until 2029, and the several cycle fluctuations in between are the key to determining the final height. Instead of fixating on that point, it’s better to track changes in data signals.