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The chart data is right here, no need to guess. Just look at the 1-hour K-line and you'll understand.
The technical signals are a bit glaring. The Bollinger Bands are tearing downward, with the price firmly pressed against the lower band for friction. What about the moving averages? A neat and tidy bearish alignment, with the 30-period EMA pressing down hard. The MACD green histogram is still expanding, and the DIF has already dipped below the DEA—right now, the bears are still celebrating.
What about on-chain data? Large funds are holding steady, that kind of silence is the most frightening. Retail panic selling is still happening, but it hasn't completely collapsed.
The news is eerily quiet, like the strange calm before a storm. No positive news to rescue the market, which means negative sentiment in this environment.
My judgment is straightforward: short-term, the market will continue to probe lower, with support around 3115. Don't rush to buy the dip; the trend is the only thing worth trusting. The market is notorious for resisting all kinds of doubts, but your trading records will speak for you. Follow my analysis, not to copy trades, but to learn how to read the rhythm of these market movements.