Ethereum shows clear signs of convergence on the technical side. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly, and volatility has dropped to its lowest level of the year. This kind of situation usually indicates that a major move is about to begin. The MACD is repeatedly oscillating around the zero line, suggesting a subtle shift in the balance of bullish and bearish forces.

What’s more noteworthy is the on-chain data performance. Over the past 24 hours, large addresses have continued to accumulate, while the Ethereum balance on exchanges has fallen to a new low for the year. The combination of these two signals sends a very clear message — selling pressure is drying up, and big players are quietly accumulating chips.

From an institutional perspective, although Ethereum spot ETFs have not yet been officially launched, the proportion of institutional investors’ holdings has increased for three consecutive weeks. This indicates that smart money has already begun to quietly position itself. Coupled with the technical pattern at the end of this convergence triangle, the probability of an upward breakout is quite high. A rough estimate suggests that within the next 12 to 24 hours, there should be a clear directional choice, with the previous high area being the first target to watch.

Don’t pay too much attention to a few short-term bearish candles. The real trend often starts when most people are still hesitating. From technical analysis, on-chain data, to institutional movements, all three dimensions point in the same direction — this is a reliable basis for trading. Hold your chips well and wait for the certainty to arrive.