#比特币价格波动 Seeing this report from VanEck, I have to say—this logic of "declining mining activity being a bullish signal" needs to be understood in stages.

Since 2014, the probability of positive returns within 90 days after a drop in hash rate has indeed been 65%, which seems higher than the 54% during periods of hash rate growth. But there's a common pitfall that's easy to overlook: a higher probability does not mean you can make money. I’ve fallen for this "historical pattern" trap early on—taking statistical data as gospel, only to be fooled badly.

What is the essence of declining mining activity? Weaker miners are pushed out under financial pressure. This could indeed lead to increased centralization of hash power, which might benefit network stability in the long run. But the key question is: how much of this expectation has already been priced into the current Bitcoin price?

My advice is, don’t change your holdings just because of an institutional report. Such "signals" can only serve as references at best. The real long-term approach is to regularly review your risk tolerance, set proper stop-loss levels, and avoid betting on short-term fluctuations. The market always has new stories and data that can change expectations—chasing these signals greedily often results in the harshest losses.

Stay calm when viewing the market, and don’t get overly excited by any single report. That’s the way to survive both bull and bear markets.