Based on the current $BTC trend, it indeed reflects some characteristics of 2017—back then, veteran holders started to realize profits in a concentrated manner, but the influx of new funds was far from enough to balance the selling pressure.

From the market performance, early whale holdings are indeed more stubborn than expected. Their cost basis is basically zero, so even selling at current prices yields astronomical profits, making the selling pressure very persistent. In comparison, ETFs and institutions, while having enough capacity to absorb sell-offs, are clearly more cautious and restrained in their purchasing strategies, and would never blindly accept all sell orders.

From this perspective, the entire turnover cycle might take 6-12 months, or even longer, to complete. It’s somewhat like inventory clearance in real estate—having buyers alone isn’t enough; the key is whether the allocation pace of large capital can match the market, and whether retail investors’ sentiment can be rekindled.

This phase is less of a rebound and more of a slow bottom-building process. Time will tell.