1.8 Gold Midday Analysis

As of January 8, 2026, 12:00 PM, spot gold is experiencing short-term high-level oscillations and pullbacks, with a medium-term bullish trend and no change in the long-term upward logic. London gold fluctuated within the range of 4446-4466 during the day, briefly dipping to 4422.89 in the Asian session, mainly due to profit-taking, passive selling caused by index weight adjustments, and a phase rebound of the US dollar. However, expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases provide strong support.

Core Logic: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in March is heating up, and the decline in real interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is positive for the valuation of non-yield assets. Geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold purchases (such as China’s 14 consecutive months of increased holdings) continue to provide bottom support, and pullbacks are often seen as buying opportunities.

Key Risks and Subsequent Scenario Predictions

Bullish Scenario: Non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations → strengthened rate cut expectations → dollar weakens → gold prices quickly recover

Neutral Scenario: Data in line with expectations → increased volatility → range of 4400–4500, awaiting subsequent CPI and Fed decision guidance.

Bearish Scenario: Data significantly exceeds expectations → cooling of rate cut expectations → dollar strengthens → dips to 4350, testing medium-term support.

Trading Recommendations -
Short-term: Consider gradually increasing long positions around 4400–4420 with small batches, stop-loss below 4380; target 4450
Mid-term: Gradually add positions within 4350–4400 range, target 4550–4600, stop-loss at 4300.
- Risk Control: Do not exceed 30% position size, strictly set stop-loss, closely monitor non-farm payrolls and US dollar index movements on Friday.