Fundstrat's Digital Asset Head Sean Farrell recently published an interesting market outlook. The company is backed by Tom Lee— the well-known Bitcoin bear on Wall Street. But now his team is raising alarms, which is worth paying close attention to.

Lee's stance is a bit nuanced: he remains bullish in the long term, expecting Bitcoin to eventually surge to $1 million. However, they are particularly cautious about the near term. Sean points out that a "risk liquidation event" could occur in the first half of 2026—the risk of a market-wide blow-off. This shakeout could push Bitcoin back to around $60,000.

But the key is the second half of the year. Once the panic phase passes, factors like liquidity, favorable policies, and AI concepts will take turns gaining momentum, creating a genuine long opportunity window.

Predictions for several mainstream coins are also quite insightful:

For Ethereum, traditional institutions now treat it like a small-cap tech stock. If the RWA (on-chain assetization) story continues to develop, the year-end target is $4,500.

The situation with SOL is a bit more complex. It will compete with Ethereum in the RWA market but lacks backing from major institutions. During the risk shakeout in the first half, it might be dragged down to the $50-$75 range, then have a rebound opportunity.

The description of altcoins is quite vivid—the market for altcoins after risk liquidation is like a carefully crafted cocktail. Once market panic subsides and the bottom is thoroughly shaken out, those solid fundamental small coins will enter a breakout phase.

Logically, this analysis also makes sense. By the end of 2025, entering 2026, the market has accumulated a lot of uncertainties: the Federal Reserve's unpredictable policies, the variables of the U.S. election year, and the need to clear high-leverage positions—all these factors stack up, indeed laying the groundwork for a risk explosion.