January 8th was not a peaceful day for the crypto market. At 5:10 AM, Federal Reserve official Powell was about to deliver a speech, and her stance has always been seen by the market as a barometer for interest rate cuts. Reviewing her previous views, she has repeatedly emphasized the fragility of the labor market and advocated for decisive rate cuts. This time’s speech is likely to once again shake market expectations of a rate cut cycle, thereby influencing the direction of the US dollar, US stocks, and even the entire crypto asset market.

The real key lies in the evening. The US December Challenger Job Cuts data will be released at 20:30, with the previous figure already hitting a 22-year high. The tech industry has cut over 410,000 jobs so far this year. Will this wave of year-end layoffs continue to spread? Half an hour later, at 21:30, the initial unemployment claims data will follow. The last report showed 199,000 claims, unexpectedly below expectations, but the continuing claims surged to 1.92 million. This contradictory phenomenon reflects the true picture: the labor market appears stable on the surface but is actually fragile underneath.

These two major data points are directly related to the market pulse in early 2026. If employment data remains weak, the expectation of rate cuts will be confirmed, giving risk assets like BTC and ETH a reason to rally; conversely, strong data will delay rate cut expectations and trigger short-term corrections. Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are already oscillating around these expectations, with institutional funds waiting for signals to bottom out. Getting the market trend right means profits, while getting it wrong means standing guard. The data releases tonight could be enough to change the short-term trajectory.