The current movement is like a "deep breath before the launch." As long as support exists in the 3180-3200 range, this pullback is to prepare for a better rise. The current price is trading around 3215, it is recommended to "monitor the market and not move too much," and to watch whether the four-hour candle shows a long lower tail.

There are two possible paths:
First possibility: testing support then attempting to rise again (probability 60%)
Support in the 3180-3200 range (and it is an important support on the four-hour level). After horizontal fluctuation for 8-12 hours, and MACD energy consumption on the hourly level, the price may attempt again to reach the target 3300-3350.
Second possibility: a deep correction and rebound (probability 40%)
If Bitcoin declines simultaneously and causes Ethereum to break below 3180, the market may enter a deep correction phase, testing the previous breakout level around 3120-3150. In this case, the consolidation period may extend to 2-3 days.
Main indicator analysis:
- Very short-term (15 minutes/hour): the current trend is bearish, looking for a bottom. At these levels, all moving averages (MA5, 10, 21) are broken, showing a decline and distribution.
- MACD: in a bearish crossover phase below zero, indicating continued short-term selling pressure.
- WR indicator: in the oversold zone below -80, indicating a short-term rebound possibility, but this rebound is often a "technical correction" and not an immediate reversal.
Timeframe (4 hours): a significant moment (support test)
The four-hour chart is the focus of the analysis, and the price is at the MA21 line (around 3199-3200). Usually in an uptrend, MA21 is the "lifeline." If broken with volume, the upward wave may end around 2900.
KDJ indicator: shows a quick bearish crossover at a high level, indicating that the price is still searching for a bottom and looking for support.
Long-term (daily): a complete bullish structure, clear correction signs
On the daily level, strength is still present, with a continuing golden cross on MACD and increasing red columns. From 3307 to about 3210, on the daily chart, it appears as a candle with a long upper shadow, a natural correction after the rise, aiming to take profits near 3000 and reduce leverage.
Entry plan:
❤️ Buy:
Currently, Ethereum on the four-hour chart stands on the MA21 line (around 3199.55), which is the lifeline. In a strong market, testing this moving average is usually a high-probability point for short-term profit.
• Entry area (buy): 3200 - 3210
• Reason: there is support from the moving averages on the four-hour chart, and it is also a strong psychological level.
• Small stop loss: 3175
• Reason: the lowest level on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts around 3182. Placing a stop loss at 3175 prevents falling into a "false breakout" trap and provides an exit opportunity if the price breaks this level, indicating that the four-hour upward wave may have ended.
• Risk management: stop loss range about 30-35 points (about 1%), a small standard stop loss.
• Profit targets:
• First target: 3260 - 3280 (recovering the recent decline, also a pressure level on the 1-hour moving average).
• Second target: 3300 - 3310 (previous resistance, and if broken, higher levels can be considered).
Market variable analysis
If 3180 is broken with volume (closing a real candle below), it is advised to immediately stop the buy plan. Because the next strong support is around 3120 - 3140, and there is a gap in the area.
❤️ Sell:
First plan: trading from the left side (facing rebound resistance)
This plan is suitable when the price returns to test the resistance level and the upward momentum weakens.
• Entry area: 3255 - 3275
• Reason: there is pressure on the hourly moving averages in this range. If the price rebounds here, and a negative divergence appears on MACD on the 15-minute level, it indicates the rebound is ending.
• Small stop loss: 3315
• Reason: the previous high around 3307. If the price breaks and stabilizes above 3315, it indicates a return of buying strength, and the sell loss should be stopped.
• Profit targets: first target 3180, second target 3120.
Second plan: trading from the right side (facing support break)
This plan is suitable when support is lost and the trend turns bearish.
• Entry area: 3175 - 3185 (chasing the break)
• Reason: support from MA21 on the four-hour chart around 3200, and the previous low at 3182. If the real price breaks 3180, it indicates erosion of the short-term upward wave and opens the way for a decline.
• Small stop loss: 3225
• Reason: returning above 3220 means the break was a "false break," and you should exit and monitor.
• Profit targets: 3120 - 3100, a psychological level.
Since MACD on the four-hour chart has not deteriorated completely yet, it is recommended to monitor support at 3200 first.
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