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The bond market is undergoing a deep structural divergence.
In the past, we habitually regarded government bonds as the ultimate safe haven, but that logic no longer holds. The data makes it clear—Japanese bonds have fallen by 32% this year, German bonds also declined by 8%, and traditional "safe assets" are shrinking significantly. In stark contrast, Chinese bonds have risen by 35%, and U.S. bonds rebounded by 13% after the pain of 2022.
What does this reflect? Simply put, it’s the split in global central bank policies. The US and Europe maintain high interest rates and environmentally friendly policies, while Japan has chosen a loose monetary stance. As a result, the bond market is no longer a unified global market but has fragmented into several regional markets operating independently. The safe assets you buy in Japan could become risky assets if held in Europe.
When the traditional credit system experiences such a裂变, capital will inevitably seek new outlets. At this moment, crypto assets with strong consensus and ample liquidity become particularly attractive. It’s not that crypto assets are completely risk-free, but compared to those traditional safe havens that are depreciating, they at least maintain transparent price discovery mechanisms and global liquidity.
For strategists, the question now is no longer "Should we allocate to Bitcoin," but rather "In the context of the global safe haven system restructuring, how can we find truly stable asset anchors?" The continued growth of the RWA market to some extent also reflects this search process.
Chinese bonds, on the other hand, rose by 35%, which is really fucking ironic. Central banks around the world are playing their own games, and funds can only save themselves.
At this time, Bitcoin's transparent liquidity has instead become a stabilizing force—how absurd is that?
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Even the central banks are doing their own thing now, can the bond market still be unified? I doubt it
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Basically, old money has nowhere to go, and this is the real source of buying pressure for BTC
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Chinese bonds up 35%, Japanese bonds down 32%, this gap is true divergence... The problem isn't crypto, it's the central banks going crazy
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RWA is indeed worth monitoring, but a truly stable asset anchor? I suspect they’re just creating hype for certain projects again
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Used to buy government bonds and sleep soundly, now you have to run globally to allocate? Exhausting
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In an era of liquidity drought, the global consensus asset is hard currency, this logic makes sense
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The Bank of Japan’s recent moves have really shattered the traditional safe haven system
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Crypto isn’t risk-free but feels more comfortable than watching your assets depreciate, at least psychologically
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Central bank policy divergence → funds seek new outlets → BTC takes off, this causal chain is quite intense