Recently, as soon as the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes were released, the market exploded. The level of disagreement in this decision was unprecedented: 9 votes in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, 3 votes advocating for a pause, and 1 vote demanding a one-time 150 basis point cut. Powell was caught in the middle, and the rate cut decision was as awkward as it could be.

To put it simply, this 25 basis point rate cut is not really a victory for the dovish camp. Even the members supporting the cut wrote in their voting records that they "almost opposed it," which actually reveals a strong hawkish tone. The real issue is that Trump's tariff policies are severely disrupting the market. For example: a Christmas swimsuit that originally cost $100 now costs $340. An average American family spends an extra $2,400 a year on daily necessities, and when you do the math, more than half of the people are crying out that they can't make ends meet.

There's also a more painful detail. The Fed claims to have conducted a $40 billion "technical operation," which everyone can see as a disguised form of liquidity injection, with a strong hint of QE. This is essentially setting a trap for the next chair.

The situation in 2025 will be even more complicated. The Federal Reserve's voting members will undergo a major reshuffle, and hawkish forces will significantly increase. Imagine if most of the new members hold hawkish views; in 2025, there might be no room for further rate cuts throughout the year. The dot plot already hints clearly—by 2026, there may only be room for one rate cut.

Current economic data itself is quite divided. A GDP growth rate of 4.3% sounds good, but inflation pressures remain uncontrolled, and employment data is weakening. Plus, the government shutdown has caused statistical chaos, making it especially difficult to assess the true economic situation.

So, how should you allocate your assets?

Looking at A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, northbound funds may continue to flow in, with a focus on technology growth sectors and high-dividend defensive stocks. As for gold, allocating 5%-10% as a hedge is a prudent choice. Once the dollar starts to weaken, gold can play its role. Don’t think about holding dollar assets long-term; locking in high-interest deposits for 6 months is the most solid approach.

As for cryptocurrencies, honestly, volatility will only increase. In this macro environment of repeated uncertainties, position management becomes the top priority. Stay cautious, control leverage, and don’t be led by short-term market movements.

Currently, Trump is still actively posting on social media, while Powell has to deal with inflation and political pressures at the same time. The Fed’s independence is being continuously challenged. This show has just begun, and the ups and downs ahead are inevitable.