The excitement belongs to others; we need to see clearly.

When old projects like FIL suddenly rebound, and Layer 1 and infrastructure tracks take turns to show explosive daily gains, market sentiment is immediately ignited. On the surface, everything seems prosperous; but in reality? The big players are using this final window of opportunity to dump their chips onto retail investors still believing that "the altcoin season will return."

**1. Market segmentation is becoming more and more obvious**

The crypto market of 2025 has experienced unprecedented fragmentation.

On the Bitcoin side, with continuous inflows of hundreds of millions of dollars into spot ETFs, the price remains stable above $86,000, with market share surging to 60%. And what about altcoins? The total market cap shrank from $1.8 trillion to $1.4 trillion, a drop of 27%.

The reason for this divergence is straightforward:

Institutional funds only buy Bitcoin. Traditional capital like pensions and sovereign funds allocate Bitcoin through compliant spot ETFs but stay completely away from altcoins—regulatory risks are too high. Liquidity for altcoins has dried up. Trading volume on exchanges for altcoins has plummeted 70% since 2021, and order book depth is less than $100,000. Any sell pressure could cause the entire market to collapse.

A concrete example makes this clear: a certain public chain project was valued at $3 billion at launch, with only 5% circulating supply. Within half a year, its price dropped 80%. This "low circulation, high FDV" pattern has become a deadly trap for altcoins.

**2. Behind the rebound is the final fight of the big players**

Short-term rebounds in altcoins are not about value discovery. They are orchestrated "end-of-days celebrations" by the big players.

How do they do it? Very simply—by exploiting market FOMO. When Bitcoin rises, retail investors start thinking, "Bitcoin has already gone up so much, maybe altcoins should move too." Then the big players, under this mindset, use small amounts of capital to create fake trading volume, pushing prices higher. Once retail investors flood in, the big players immediately dump their holdings.

This tactic is especially effective in an environment with exhausted trading volume. Because total trading volume is low, big players can move the market significantly with minimal funds. But once they want to sell, the market can't absorb that much supply.

**3. Why can Bitcoin remain unaffected?**

Why is Bitcoin different? It has deep liquidity. Currently, daily trading volume reaches billions of dollars, and no matter how skilled the big players are, they can't control it. Plus, continuous institutional inflows are expanding the market cap. Altcoins, on the other hand, are the opposite—funds are drying up, and experienced traders have already exited.

**4. What will happen next?**

In the short term, there will still be rebounds. After all, market sentiment hasn't completely collapsed, and retail investors are still buying the dip. But these rebounds are essentially opportunities for the big players to offload their holdings. Once the window closes, these projects will revert to their true value—usually close to zero.

The institutionalization of Bitcoin is irreversible. More and more traditional capital will enter, but they only recognize Bitcoin and a few top projects. The middle-tier altcoins? Without narrative support, liquidity, or institutional buyers, that’s the future landscape.

So, that phrase needs to be changed: The excitement belongs to the big players; the risks belong to retail investors.