2026-01-01 13:20:27

There is a saying that has been popular in the crypto circle for a long time—Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle. But looking at these data, it seems not so simple.

From 2011 to now, this digital asset's performance has been truly outrageous. It increased by 5428% in 2013, 1369% in 2017, and only 60% in 2021. During downturns, it also defies logic—down 74% in 2018, 64% in 2022, and this year 2025, it’s down another 5% at the start of the year.

In 2020, it surged 303%, and in 2024, it rose 121%… It seems any pattern can be fitted. Some years see strong rebounds, some are flat, and some are outright halved. The question is: can the idea of a four-year cycle still be valid?

Perhaps cycles exist, but they are never as regular as we think. The market always has its own temper.

BTC-1,9%

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LightningLady

· 01-03 05:39

The four-year cycle theory should have been discarded long ago; the market doesn't follow the script at all.

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 01-02 23:30

Four-year cycle? I just look at this data and want to laugh, it sounds just like the real thing.

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GasFeeBarbecue

· 01-02 07:26

Four-year cycle? Those are just stories; the market doesn't follow a script.

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LuckyHashValue

· 01-01 13:48

The four-year cycle is outdated; now it's just gambling plus luck.

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NFTRegretful

· 01-01 13:41

Four-year cycles are purely self-deception; the market simply doesn't buy into that.

Bitcoin is always breaking your expectations, and that's the norm.

Basically, it's armchair quarterbacking; any pattern can be fabricated.

The cycle theory should have been thrown into the trash long ago. Wake up, everyone.

The data is right here. Take a good look and stop fantasizing.

Ah, another year of "this time it's different," I'm tired of hearing it.

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RegenRestorer

· 01-01 13:41

Four-year cycle? Uh... it just feels like armchair strategizing after the fact.

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AllInDaddy

· 01-01 13:25

Four-year cycle? Haha, that's just a story to fool retail investors; it's merely a game the market loves to play.

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MetaverseLandlord